If you like gambling and card games, you have probably seen “21”, a 2008 movie directed by Robert Luketic and based on the true story about a MIT Students Team, that between 1980 and 1990 broke the bank at several Las Vegas casinos by card counting in blackjack. Card counting in live blackjack tables not using any automatic shuffle machine is definitely a possibility regardless of the number of decks used and it is profitable. But probably not everyone knows that the card counting technique can be adopted in other popular casino card games, including Baccarat. Even if apparently a bit more complicated, the system behind card counting in baccarat is indeed quite simple to apply.

When you play Baccarat online or live you soon realise that Baccarat is a very simple game where there exist only two options for betting, the banker bet and the player bet. The standard odds are straightforward to evaluate and the house edge amounts to 1.06% in the banker bet and 1.24% in the player bet. However the difference between the two can vary with the cards still available in the deck, thus counting cards you can choose the right bet at any moment and definitely move the odds in your favour.

How does card counting in baccarat actually work?

As for blackjack there must not be used an automatic shuffle machine that puts used cards back in the shoe and shuffles the decks again at any turn. So the game begins and the work you have to do is the following:

• if the dealer shows an ace, a two or a three, you must add one to the count;
• if the dealer shows a four, you must add two to the count;
• if the dealer shows a five, a seven or a eight, you must subtract one from the count;
• if the dealer shows a six, you must subtract two from the count;
• if the dealer shows a nine, a ten or any face cards, you must do nothing.

Of course whenever a new shoe or deck is used, you need to start over with a count of zero.

If the total amount you have in your head at any moment is higher than 16, you must place your bet on the player. While if it is below 16, you must choose the banker bet. The number 16 simply represents the threshold where the likelihood of success moves from one kind of bet to the other and it is the time to switch. Further we are from this number, greater this likelihood becomes. Therefore you can be almost sure of your player bet choice only when your sum reaches 235, or of a banker bet choice only when the number falls under -200. Until you reach these high numbers the only thing you can be certain of is that you are lowering the house edge against you. Still long way to go before you can reach sure profitability.

This system tells us nothing more than the right moment to switch to the player bet as the size of the count increases.

When more decks are used, at any moment the true count is given by your sum divided by the number of decks that are left in the shoe. If for instance you’ve reached 25 and there are 5 decks left in the shoe, you have a true count of five, while if the deck remaining is only one, you have a true count of 25 that is a nice deviation from the threshold.

If you want to practice with this system you can do this right now. Just take a single deck of cards, start flipping over one card at a time and begin counting until no more cards are available. Your final value should be zero, if it is not, you missed something somewhere and you should start over. When you master the one-deck counting, you can move on to 2 decks and so on until you are ready for a profitable experience at your preferred live casino.

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